Brexit Polls Reveal an Increase of 40% from Last Week’s 30%

Global Equities

A decline in global markets was seen in the past weeks as investors remained cautious over the impending “Brexit” result which will be decided today June 23 and the FOMC meeting. Recent polls showed that 40% are voting for Britain’s exit in the Euro zone compared to 30% from the last survey.

In the US, the market continued to post losses throughout the week despite the fact that the Fed remains positive of keeping its low interest rates. Moreover, Fed signaled its plan to increase its rate twice this year however, lowering their 2016 and 2017 growth forecasts. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, “it was fair to say that [“Brexit” concerns] was one of the factors that factored into today’s decision.”

Over Europe, shares continued to decline due to the potential of a Brexit. Polls showed an increase in the number of favoring to “Leave” the EU. Investors and traders are referring to the current situation as an “influential” Brexit poll.

Market shares in Japan reacted to a weakening U.S. dollar affecting Asian equities. Overall, Asian markets continued to decline as global investors reduce its risk of the UK referendum vote on the 23rd.
Week-on-week, the MSCI World Index closed at 1,628.13, down by 3.58%. MSCI Europe was down -5.68%, while MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan declined 4.38%.

09-Jun-16 16-Jun-16 Change in %
MSCI World 1,688.66 1,628.13 -3.58%
MSCI Europe 114.87 108.34 -5.68%
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan 419.10 400.74 -4.38%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,005.05 17,640.17 -1.92%
S&P 500 2,119.12 2,071.50 -2.08%

Global Bonds

US Treasury prices continued to rally with yields dropping to record-lows in response to the risk-off sentiment brought by the Federal Reserve officials’ comments regarding the US economy, and the impending referendum in the UK.

Tenor 9-June-16 16-Jun-16 +-bps
3m 0.249 0.254 0.57
6m 0.423 0.340 -8.26
2y 0.767 0.685 -8.16
5y 1.221 1.091 -13.00
10y 1.687 1.579 -10.79
30y 2.487 2.396 -9.10


US Dollar traded sideways with a pronounced upward bias this week as majority of the investors fled the Euro on the prospect of a possible Brexit.

9-June-16 2-Jun-16 Change in %
EUR/USD 1.1343 1.1212 -1.15%
GBP/USD 1.4466 1.4127 -2.34%
USD/JPY 106.49 104.30 -2.06%
AUD/USD 0.7437 0.7357 -1.08%
USD/CHF 0.9619 0.9657 0.40%
EUR/CHF 1.09102 1.08277 -0.76%
EUR/JPY 120.79 116.94 -3.19%
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